After the fifth round of the UEFA Europa League group stage, the chances of each team's progression have been calculated.
According to Idman.biz, experts have created a table outlining the probabilities for the 36 teams in the competition, based on their current standing and possible outcomes. The table presents four possible positions for teams: 1st-8th, 9th-16th, 17th-24th, and 25th-36th.
- Teams finishing in the 1st-8th positions will directly qualify for the Round of 16.
- Teams in the 9th-16th positions will have the advantage of playing the second leg of the playoffs at home.
- Teams ranked 17th-24th will start the playoffs at home.
- The bottom 12 teams (25th-36th) will be eliminated from European competitions.
As for Qarabag, who have earned just 3 points from 5 matches, their situation is clear. The Azerbaijani champions are currently in 32nd place and are considered underdogs in their group.
Experts have concluded that Qarabag no longer have a chance to reach the Round of 16. Their probability of finishing in the top 8 is 0%. For context, the team in 8th place, Rangers, currently has 10 points.
While a direct qualification to the Round of 16 seems unlikely, there is still a possibility for Qarabag to reach this stage through the playoffs. The probability of them finishing in the 9th-24th range is 21%.
The chance of Qarabag finishing in the 9th-16th range, which would allow them to play the second leg of the playoffs at home, is very low – 3%. However, their chances of finishing in the 17th-24th range, which would mean starting the playoffs at home, are much higher at 18%. The likelihood of Qarabag being eliminated from European competitions is high, with an estimated probability of 79%.
Qarabag has three remaining matches: away against Elfsborg and Olympiacos, and at home against FCSB.
Idman.biz
