The Path to a Challenging Goal and the Benefit of the Top 20: What is AFFA Striving for? - ANALYSIS

The development strategy recently presented by the Azerbaijan Football Federation Association (AFFA) is designed with the future of Azerbaijani football in mind.

Idman.biz continues its in-depth exploration of the details within this project.

After examining the first goal outlined in the strategy, let us turn to the secondary objective: AFFA's long-term vision of having Azerbaijan’s clubs rank within UEFA’s top 20.

What Does 20th Place Offer?

It’s worth asking: what tangible benefits would be reaching the “Top 20” bring to Azerbaijani clubs? To find out, we must delve into the allocation of European competition slots among nations.

If Azerbaijan secures the 20th position, it won’t lead to any groundbreaking changes. The allocation remains familiar: one team will participate in the Champions League, one in the Europa League, and two in the Conference League.

The only difference lies in the Champions League entry point. A champion from the 20th-ranked country starts in the second qualifying round instead of the first. However, this adjustment wouldn’t significantly impact Qarabag, as the club’s strong UEFA ranking already allows it to enter at the same stage. The primary effect would be felt by other clubs that manage to claim the domestic championship title.

For Qarabag, this would mean either continuing to start in the second round due to its ranking or effortlessly defeating opponents in the first round, which often resembles a warm-up session for the team.

An Impossible Dream?

When discussing the club distribution system, let's examine what significant changes would be needed to achieve such goals. Under the current system, to see substantial changes, Azerbaijan would need to advance to 15th place in UEFA's rankings. Reaching this position would even increase the number of teams competing. The 15th-ranked country sends two teams to the Champions League, one to the Europa League, and two to the Conference League.

Both the champion and runner-up from a 15th-ranked nation would enter the Champions League in the second qualifying round—one via the champions’ path and the other via the non-champions’ path. Meanwhile, the cup winner in the Europa League would begin in the third qualifying round instead of the first. The two Conference League teams would also start in the second round, but they would be from the 3rd or 4th spots in their domestic leagues.

For comparison, the champion of the 14th-ranked country now has the opportunity to start in the third qualifying round of the Champions League.

However, let’s be realistic: despite the ambition, even reaching 15th place does not seem like a viable long-term, let alone permanent, target. In fact, this goal might be considered nearly impossible. Of course, if UEFA continues to implement reforms and introduce new tournaments and formats, there may be changes to the current distribution system. But until that happens, this dream remains elusive.

Sad Reality

AFFA is likely aware of the current situation as it targets the Top 20. Currently, Azerbaijan sits in the middle of the rankings, at 28th place out of 55 countries, with 19.625 points. This places Azerbaijan 8 positions away from its goal. Additionally, it’s important to consider that Russia, which is currently excluded from European competitions, has long been a fixture in the "Top 10." The northern countries, now ranked 30th, might also return to competitions and reclaim their positions.

At present, Cyprus holds 20th place with 25.662 points, while Azerbaijan is separated from the "Top 20" by a significant 6.037 points. Between Azerbaijan and Cyprus, there are countries with strong football traditions, including Ukraine, Serbia, Sweden, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria. Of course, surpassing some of these countries is possible. However, to reach the 20th spot, Azerbaijan would need to overtake Cyprus and its seven immediate followers. Furthermore, if Russia returns to the upper ranks, even overtaking 19th-ranked Croatia would become necessary. Although Croatia is not far ahead of Cyprus, the gap in quality—evidenced by Dinamo Zagreb’s dominance over Qarabag—offers little hope for optimism.

For context, let’s look at the 15th position, which would allow for changes in the number of teams competing. Scotland currently holds 32.500 points, and Cyprus, ranked 20th, has three teams still competing, while Croatia has one and Scotland two. These countries still have opportunities to increase their points, further complicating Azerbaijan’s climb.

Just Three Steps Away from the Goal

Looking back at history, there have been times when Azerbaijan was close to breaking into the Top-20. One such moment occurred at the end of the 2017/18 season. In the summer of 2018, Azerbaijan reached a historic high. At that time, the country was ranked 23rd, just three steps away from the coveted Top-20. The difference to 20th place was minimal—Romania was ahead of Azerbaijan by only 1.325 points. However, this achievement was recorded more than six years ago.

Azerbaijan’s all-time highest points total stands at 20.125, recorded at the end of the previous season. While it was the first time Azerbaijan surpassed the 20-point mark, the country still remained far from the Top-20, sitting at 28th place.

The Dream of "5+" Every Season

In 2018, accumulating just a bit over 20 points was enough to break into the "Top-20." However, last summer, the same result led to a 28th place finish. This indicates that the gains of the leading countries have grown even more substantial. Let’s take a look at the points totals of the 20th-ranked countries in the last five seasons: In 2024, Croatia had 25.525 points, in 2023 Greece had 25.225 points, in 2022 Turkey had 27.100 points, in 2021 Greece had 26.000 points, and in 2020 Croatia had 24.875 points, all securing a spot in the "Top-20."

As seen, it’s now clear that accumulating at least 25 points has become the minimum requirement for long-term goals. This translates to an average of more than 5 points per season. Looking back, Azerbaijan has achieved this only once in its history. The record set in the 2023/24 season nearly needs to be matched each time for Azerbaijan to approach the "Top-20." Achieving such a high result would require at least one team reaching the Round of 16, with others performing well. Even with this, it's hard to say for sure if it would be enough. Past seasons where two clubs played in the group stage were not enough to secure a top-tier position.

Perhaps, like in 2018, reaching 23rd place is possible, but becoming a permanent fixture in the "Top-20" will not be easy. It is impossible with just Qarabag—2-3 other clubs must also perform as successfully as the Aghdam club, and these results must be consistent. In short, while the goal is highly desirable, it remains a distant one.

Vugar Kheyrullayev

Idman.biz