The past week has been marked by the start of the Azerbaijan Cup semifinals. Two matches were played in the first-leg encounters.
Idman.biz takes a historical look at past results and what they might indicate for the current competition.
58 pairs in 32 years
The semifinals in the 33rd edition of the Azerbaijan Cup are being played in a two-legged format for the 30th time. In 1992, the stage consisted of a single match, while the 2001/02 and 2019/20 seasons were left incomplete. Initially, club boycotts and later the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the semifinals. In the other 29 seasons of the past 32 years, 58 pairs have faced off in this stage.
The 8th in history
The Baku derby between Neftchi and Sabah was the more productive encounter, with Sabah securing a 2-1 away victory. Looking at the 58 semifinal pairs in history, this result has occurred seven times before. In the 1997/98 season, the visiting teams won 2-1 in both semifinal first-leg matches.
Sabah’s advantage
If the first leg of a semifinal ends with this result, the away team that wins gains a significant advantage. Out of the previous seven instances, five teams managed to maintain their lead and advance to the final. This means that Sabah now has a 71% chance of making it to the final.
Neftchi’s ray of hope
Only two of the teams that lost the first leg 1-2 have managed to turn things around and reach the final, which translates to a 29% success rate. However, Neftchi can find hope in the fact that in the last two cases, the losing team managed to win the return leg. Ironically, the first team to fail in this situation was Neftchi itself. After defeating Gabala 2-1 away, the black-and-whites lost the home leg and missed out on the final—despite scoring first in Baku. Three years ago, Zira suffered a similar fate, with Shamakhi progressing on the now-defunct away goals rule.
Previous Semifinals Where the Away Team Won 2-1 in the First Leg:
Qarabag – Turan – 1:0 (1997/98)
Kapaz – Neftchi – 2:1 (1997/98)
Qarabag – Kur-Nur – 1:0 (2003/04)
Shamkir – Qarabag Azersun – 2:0 (2008/09)
Qarabag – Baku – 2:1 (2017/18)
Neftchi – Gabala – 1:3 (2020/21)
Zira – Shamakhi – 2:3 (2020/21)
Another 1-0 result
In the other semifinal, Araz-Nakhchivan secured a 1-0 home win over Qarabag. A narrow home victory like this is one of the most common results in the first-leg history of semifinals, recorded 13 times before. In the 1999/2000 season, both semifinals started with 1-0 home wins.
Who has the edge?
Historical data suggests that Araz-Nakhchivan and Qarabag enter the return leg with nearly equal chances. Of the 13 previous cases, six times the home team managed to hold onto their lead, while in seven instances, the visiting team overturned the result. This gives Qarabag a slight advantage—a 54% chance compared to Araz-Nakhchivan’s 46%.
Qarabag’s familiar scenario
This is the third time Qarabag has lost the first leg of a semifinal 0-1 away. In the previous two cases, they managed to overturn the deficit once. In the 1995/96 season, they avenged a loss to Khazri with a 3-0 home win. However, six years ago, they couldn't fully make up for a 2-1 away win against Gabala, as the away goals rule prevented them from advancing. Qarabag has also been on the other side of this scenario—winning the first leg 1-0 at home three times, and only once did their opponent manage a comeback.
Previous Semifinals Where the Home Team Won 1-0 in the First Leg:
Insaatchi (Sumgayit) – Insaatchi (Baku) – 4:1
Qarabag – Khazri – 3:0 (1995/96)
Kapaz – Qarabag – 3:0 (1996/97)
Neftchi – Kapaz – 0:0 (1999/00)
Vilash – Qarabag – 1:1
Neftchi – Bakili – 1:0 (2003/04) (Penalty shootout: 5:3)
Karvan – Khazar Lankaran – 3:0 (2005/06)
Baku – Khazar Lankaran – 2:1 (2010/11)
Khazar Lankaran – Baku – 2:0 (2012/13)
Simurq – Qarabag – 0:0 (2014/15)
Sumgayit – Keshla – 1:1 (2017/18)
Qarabag – Gabala – 2:1 (2018/19)
Neftchi – Turan Tovuz – 2:0 (2022/23)
History repeats itself
This is not the first time a 2-1 away win in one semifinal and a 1-0 home win in the other have occurred simultaneously. It is actually the fourth time in history that these exact results have been recorded. The first instance dates back to 1993, the inaugural season with a two-legged semifinal format. The same scenario also played out in the 2003/04 season—in both cases, the teams that won 2-1 away managed to advance, while those that lost 1-0 away staged comebacks.
However, the opposite happened in the 2017/18 season, when both home teams progressed. In all three cases, the two finalists were the teams that had started at home. If this pattern continues, the final will feature either Neftchi vs. Araz-Nakhchivan or Sabah vs. Qarabag.
The return legs will be played on April 23.
Vugar Kheyrullayev
Idman.biz
